The proper way of understanding the two serious Iranian missile barrages on Israel is as a demonstration of the fragility of the iron dome.
Every missile in the iron dome arsenal by definition has to be a smart bomb—after all, they are trying to shoot missiles out of the sky. And since Israelis have a very low tolerance for losses, several iron dome missiles are sent to take out each incoming missile. Each of these missiles is quite expensive; and in fact, due to logistical and supply chain realities, not exactly easy to replace. This is one of the reasons Hezbollah occasionally launches missiles at Israel—there is a massive cost imbalance, and they are depleting financial and military resources.
Now to return to the two Iranian barrages. In each case, they exhausted the iron dome within a few days. Basically, Israel’s shields were down. Had they wanted to, at that point, Iran or Hezbollah could have rained hellfire down on Tel Aviv. The fact that they didn’t shows that this should be properly interpreted as a warning—we can leave you exposed to the estimated 100,000 plus missiles that it is believed Hezbollah has in their possession. The fact that Iran stopped their barrage as soon as the shields were down demonstrates that they are showing restraint. Obviously this restraint doesn’t come from any humanitarian place—the Iranian regime is a disgusting, fascist kleptocracy. It comes from self preservation—they are aware that should they rain hellfire upon Tel Aviv, they will surely be destroyed by Israel’s nuclear arsenal. ….more
