SA MRC Reports on Deaths in SA as at 7th July 2020

Trends

• The all-cause national number of deaths of persons 1+ years of age per week has risen to 13,684 and is 26.5% higher than the predicted number based on historical data in the week ending 7 July 2020. When compared with the predicted numbers, there was an excess of 2,868 deaths.
• The number of deaths from natural causes is also significantly higher than the predicted number, for persons 1-59 years and 60+ years.
• In the period, 6 May – 7 July 2020, there has been an excess of 10,994 deaths from natural causes of persons 1+ year old when using a revised base accounting for lower mortality during lockdown. For people 1-59 years the excess is 3,655 and 7,305 for people 60+ years.
• Table 1 shows the estimated excess number of natural deaths in metro areas and the provinces. Deaths from natural causes in the City of Cape Town (2,923), Nelson Mandela Bay (773), Johannesburg (1120), Ekurhuleni (780), Buffalo City (497) and City of Tshwane (326) metros continued increasing in the week up to 3 July 2020.
• The rate of increase in natural deaths in the City of Cape Town appears to have slowed down. There were 389 excess deaths in the week up to 3 July 2020, compared with 424 during the previous week.
• Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are experiencing an excess number of natural deaths. There is a particularly sharp increase in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. Compared with the predicted number of natural deaths from historical data in the week ending 3 July 2020, the Eastern Cape had 90% more, Gauteng had 71% more, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal had 17% more.
• The number of deaths from unnatural causes (e.g. road traffic fatalities and homicides) was 28% below the predicted number for the week ending 7 July 2020.