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The first official prediction of how many ICU beds would be used in the Western Cape by Covid-19 patients, made back in May, overestimated by between 12 times and 16.5 times the critical care beds needed.

Updated projections in June were better, but still out by a factor of two: modellers estimating that 780 ICU beds would be needed in July, when only 320 were needed at the peak.

A later model, estimating short-term death projections for the Western Cape at 4,750 by July 13, may also not have been accurate — though this is a little unclear because it did say the best-case scenario would be 2,510 deaths, which isn’t far off the actual figure of 2,385…..more

Shared by Professor Shabir Moosa

Professor Moosa is a family physician in Soweto, Johannesburg. His interests are family medicine, community-oriented primary health care, and health management.