The escalating tensions around Iran evoke a profound sense of déjà vu. The discussion about Iran’s nuclear weapons is likened to the “Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction” playbook. Alex Krainer suggests that if Western powers were genuinely concerned, the issue could have been resolved long ago at low cost. Iran has reportedly offered to commit to never developing nuclear weapons if the threat from Israel is removed – a peaceful resolution seemingly ignored.
This isn’t about avoiding war; it’s a well-documented “playbook” of regime change. The core objective, Krainer asserts, is to install subservient governments that open resource-rich nations to Western financial and corporate interests. This pattern has been observed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, where independent governments seeking sovereignty and control over natural resources are targeted. Resource wealth often seems a curse, drawing conflict wherever oil, gas, or strategic minerals are found.
Remarkably, Iran appears to be effectively striking Israeli strategic assets, including ports, Mossad headquarters, and Ben Gurion airport, inflicting “real actual pain”. This effectiveness seemingly surprised Israeli intelligence, with reports of a heated exchange between Ben-Gvir and the Mossad chief over provoking Iran and underestimating its missile power. For Israel, backing down would be a strategic defeat. While US intervention is possible, its certainty is questioned. An unsettling possibility raised is that only nuclear weapons could reverse the course for Israel or the US, an existential red line.
Iran is a formidable adversary, having prepared for this clash for over two decades with effective weaponry. It also enjoys support from Pakistan, China, and Russia, making it a more powerful opponent than the Taliban or Ansar Allah, both of whom previously defeated American power.
Regional dynamics are complicated by tense situations in Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt. Despite the Turkish government aiding Israel – including oil supplies and missile defence – strong public revolt against Israel among ordinary Turks could lead to an uprising. Similarly, in Egypt, despite efforts by General Al-Sisi, the population and military are “extremely revolted” by Israeli actions, raising the potential for conflict. Israel is already engaged on five fronts; adding a sixth major regional power would be unprecedented overextension.
Behind the scenes, China and Russia are playing a longer game, propping up the Iranian government with defensive systems, intelligence, and anti-aircraft support, without direct military engagement. Crucially, China is also reportedly supplying weapon systems to Egypt, offering an alternative to Egypt’s heavy dependence on US military aid. This US dependency has long prevented Egypt from challenging Israel. This geopolitical realignment, where China helps wean allies off US dependency, signals a global shift towards a multipolar world.
This isn’t just about Iran or Israel; it’s a pivotal moment demanding sober reflection. Countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan may soon choose between old alliances and new realities, potentially collapsing post-Cold War assumptions about power and global order. The tragic cost of this geopolitical game is always borne by everyday people…..watch
