In a week, the number of South Africans who have contracted the COVID-19 coronavirus has gone from one to 16, to 85. If the infection rate continues to increase at the current global rate of 13% per day, hospitals will struggle to cope.
The Mail & Guardian reports that the current average infection growth rate is 13% globally – the number of people being infected is growing by 13% each day.
The report says if you use the 13% rate for South Africa, from the 17 people who have already tested positive for COVID-19, the probability is that 665 people could be infected in the next 30 days. On average, 12% of those people will end up critically ill and needing to go to hospital, with between 2 and 8% dying. If you use South Africa’s current growth rate of coronavirus, which is on average 57%, and if this rate continues, 100,000 people will be in need of hospital care in less than a month…..more