Screenshot 2020-08-09 at 14.00.46.pngTrends

  • For the first week in the past 12 weeks, the weekly number of deaths of persons 1+ years of age from all causes has dropped from the previous week.
  • In the week 21-28 July, there were 15,461 deaths which is 59% higher than the predicted number based on historical data for this week. When compared with the predicted numbers, there was an excess of 5,728 deaths in the latest week compared with 6,256 deaths in the prior week.
  • The number of deaths from natural causes has also dropped for the first time in the past 12 weeks. It remains significantly higher than the predicted number, for persons 1-59 years and for persons 60+ years.
  • In the period, 6 May – 28 July 2020, there has been an excess of 28,329 deaths from natural causes of persons 1+ year old when using the revised base accounting for lower mortality during lockdown. For people 1-59 years the excess is 9,459 and 18,837 for people 60+ years. Table 1 shows the estimated excess number of natural deaths in metro areas and the provinces.
  • Except for Mangaung (180), deaths from natural causes in all the metros have plateaued or declined during the week ending on 28 July 2020. When using the revised base accounting for lower mortality during lockdown, the metros experience cumulative excess deaths from natural causes: City of Cape Town (3,461), Johannesburg (2,988), Ekurhuleni (2,521), Nelson Mandela Bay (1,481), City of Tshwane (1,157), eThekwini (1,012) and Buffalo City (949).
  • Except for the Free State and Limpopo, the trends in all provinces have plateaued or declined during the week ending on 28 July 2018. The number of weekly deaths from natural causes are all significantly higher than predicted, excepting for Limpopo which is tracking along the upper prediction bound, having increased from the lower prediction bound. Compared with the predicted number of natural deaths from historical data in the week ending 28 July 2020, Free State had 121% more, Gauteng had 106% more, Eastern Cape had 96% more, KwaZulu-Natal had 69% more, Mpumalanga had 67% more, Western Cape had 41% more, Northern Cape had 52% more, North West had 38% more and Limpopo had 16% more.
  • The number of deaths from unnatural causes (e.g. road traffic fatalities and homicides) continues to track the lower prediction bound and was 26% below the predicted number for the week ending 28 July 2020.

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